In America and around the world, the tech industry sustained deep wounds in 2008. However, there is reason to hope for better days ahead. The turnovers in government set to happen later this month may yet herald an upswing for tech. The present moment is fertile, as bleak as things look.
George W. Bush's tenure as president will have been bookended by disastrous existence failures of systems in which an enormous amount of trust had been unthinkingly placed. Bush took office as the dot-com bubble was falling in on itself, an event that now looks like rehearsal for the explosive decompression of the entire world economy that posterity will associate with the final months of his presidency. If nothing else, the era of W. will be one whose historical borders aren't hard to pick out.
As Barack Obama prepares to enter the White House, the American consensus appears to be that a massive governmental effort, comparable to Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal, is needed to get the economy back in a functional state. This will mean bailing out some failing companies, propping up weakened industries, spending Brobdingnagian amounts on federal programs and initiatives, and taking countless other measures to get people spending again. If we'd really like to demonstrate our capacity to learn from mistakes, we'll be spending money that we can fold with our hands, not theoretical money that exists on a piece of plastic.
Cash flows
Once the stimulus funds start pouring out of Washington, some will surely find their way to the tech sector, but the biggest beneficiaries might not be the juggernauts everyone usually thinks of. Hardware giants like Dell, which is still adhering to a nineties-style business model, and HP, whose products consistently score low on reliability, will not be leading the charge. Intel, which just dialed down its fourth-quarter revenue estimates for a second time, has troubles of its own to focus on. As for Microsoft, it remains to be seen whether the rumored 15,000 layoffs will come to pass, but some degree of attrition is a virtual certainty, company sources have told CNBC.
We're nine years into a new century now, and it's time for the tech industry to head in a new direction. Green technology is the future, and the engineers who develop an efficient, renewable energy model to replace gasoline will be heroes of their generation. Renewable energy is a must. Clean engines in our cars are a must. Anyone who can't think bigger than cap-and-trade schemes and incremental fuel-efficiency improvements, anyone who remains uninterested in changing fundamental aspects of how Americans produce and consume energy -- the leaders of the auto industry come to mind -- must be asked to leave. The country can't afford to have them remain in power.
Obama has met with key members of Congress this week to discuss the plan for restarting the economy. He wants a stimulus package on his desk on day one. A stimulus would be great, provided it works. What doesn't work, as was demonstrated repeatedly during the Bush administration, is sending one-time checks to taxpayers. Rather, we need jobs that will put money into taxpayers' hands regularly.
You can almost see the pieces falling into place: America needs to create jobs, and America needs to go green. Whatever else may prove true about the coming conversion to ecological sanity, it's safe to say that it will consume an enormous amount of man-hours. There are many innovative tech companies standing ready to get to work, and Obama must give them his full attention.
Something from nothing
Renewable energy must be priority one. Even if global warming is a myth and we're traversing a natural segment of the Earth's weather cycle (which is not the case), a pressing need still exists to replace depleted energy sources with renewable ones. Experts may disagree on when the world's oil supply will run out, but no one can deny that it will. In all likelihood, our children or grandchildren will be around to see it happen. The day the oil runs dry, things have the potential to get very ugly, unless we have replacement sources in place.
It's time to drop the rhetoric about alternative energy. There is no alternative to renewal energy.
The only investment
We can't predict every challenge the country will face in the coming decades, but the ones we know about -- clean engines, efficient and widespread wind and solar power, water purification, safe methods of waste disposal, sustainable food supplies for a climbing world population -- will all require the serious efforts of a scientific community with political and economic support. The worst thing the new administration could do would be to neglect the scientists and companies working to find innovative answers to these questions.
Obviously, a host of urgent concerns will greet the Obama administration on January 20. There's a global economy in need of restoration, a disastrous war to be straightened out, an education system that badly wants reform, and a number of tense geopolitical situations that require American attention, even if the best course of action is observation and restraint. With so much going on, it's inevitable that something important will end up on the back burner. Yet investment in jobs will be a large part of the recovery, and investment in tech is the only investment that makes sense. If these actions can be wedded to a long-term vision, it will be good news for the planet and anyone whose plans for the future include living on it.
Here's to the year that will be.
