January 13, 2009
Since 2007, when gas prices began their most recent precipitous climb, both consumers and auto-industry leaders have been forced to re-evaluate their gas-consumption habits. Sales of SUVs have dropped like a rock, and carmakers have begun to read the writing on the wall. Oil is cheap again, but no one knows how long that will last. In the long view, of course, oil is a finite commodity, and it's inevitable that supplies will one day dwindle and prices will rise again. To that end, Detroit is focusing part of its R&D resources on hybrid and fully electric vehicles (EVs).
Hybrid cars have been with us for a few years now, and legitimate EVs have existed since at least 1996, when General Motors produced the EV1, which was quickly and controversially discontinued. In the past few months, however, every major automaker has announced progress in bringing EVs to market in the near future, some as early as this year.
Procrastination no longer an option
Toyota is the latest big company to pledge its efforts toward the development of EVs. In a recent announcement, Toyota vice president Irv Miller acknowledged the industry's need to move away from oil and big cars. "Last summer's four-dollar-a-gallon gasoline was no anomaly. It was a brief glimpse of our future," said Miller. "We must address the inevitability of peak oil by developing vehicles powered by alternatives to liquid-oil fuel, as well as new concepts... that are lighter in weight and smaller in size. This kind of vehicle, electrified or not, is where our industry must focus its creativity."
The Ford Motor Company's Executive Chairman, William C. Ford, Jr., agrees. In an interview with The New York Times, Ford said, "Frankly, I think it's a gamble not to do it. It's clear that society is headed down this road."
Ford Motors is set to make an announcement regarding EVs at this month's North America International Auto Show in Detroit. General Motors is already building a production line for the Chevrolet Volt, an EV due on auto lots next year, and Chrysler has said it plans to roll out an EV by the end of next year (assuming the company survives that long).
We need electric cars, but who wants them?
It's rare that a company or an industry will offer a product that the public doesn't want, or doesn't know it wants. The sudden push toward EVs is an example of just such a practice. Most people probably don't care whether their car runs on gas or electricity as long as it performs well, with the standards of "well" being set by existing gas cars. However, most EVs (and the known proposed EVs) get between 50 and 60 miles on a charge, a distance that few motorists are likely to find impressive. Moreover, EV batteries usually take a number of hours to recharge; in some cases, the number is a big one. Most of us used to traveling 150 or 200 miles in a day probably won't appreciate a long layover or two on the way.
A good indication that auto consumers might not quite be ready for electric cars is that, after autumn gas prices decreased to levels not seen in years, sales of hybrid cars plummeted 42.8 per cent in December (from December 2007 sales figures) and decreased 10 per cent for the full year 2008.
Going and going
Battery life is a fly in the EV ointment, but in one sense, of course, it's a problem we've been living with for years, on a smaller scale, in a thousand different forms. Batteries die all the time, in notebook computers, cell phones, flashlights and countless other products. Cell phones usually last through the day, and charge overnight while not in use. We can use our notebook computers while the battery charges. We won't be able to do this with cars, though, until the technology advances past a point that anyone's talking about now. The state of the art allows us 50 miles, and for many this will remain a deal breaker.
The entire tech industry must address this problem. For years, chipmakers and notebook manufacturers have tweaked their hardware to use less power in order to squeeze a few extra minutes from the equipment's standard lithium-ion batteries. We all might have been better served if they had put their R&D dollars into developing better batteries.
EVs also use lithium-ion batteries, and while many of these cars are still in the concept phase, warnings have already begun about the depletion of lithium.
The long-term focus must be on EVs with more substantial battery lives, but in the meantime, a stopgap solution suggests itself: developers can set about producing huge numbers of today's batteries, and the government can standardize EV batteries so that all cars use the same type. Roadside stations could then offer battery exchange services, where attendants exchange the batteries in electric cars. The experience would be roughly the equivalent of pulling into a gas station and filling up the tank. Driving as we know it wouldn't change significantly, except that it would become a lot less damaging to the planet.
Innovation we can believe in
The American auto industry is on the brink of something: possibly extinction, possibly rebirth. Switching the entire country over to EVs is an expensive proposition, but doing nothing is not an option. We have cars that run on ethanol, we have hybrid cars, and we'll see fully electric cars before too much more time passes. Innovation is possible. The industry can change, but a battleship is slow to reverse course. Let's hope the rudder was not turned too late.
Hybrid cars have been with us for a few years now, and legitimate EVs have existed since at least 1996, when General Motors produced the EV1, which was quickly and controversially discontinued. In the past few months, however, every major automaker has announced progress in bringing EVs to market in the near future, some as early as this year.
Procrastination no longer an option
Toyota is the latest big company to pledge its efforts toward the development of EVs. In a recent announcement, Toyota vice president Irv Miller acknowledged the industry's need to move away from oil and big cars. "Last summer's four-dollar-a-gallon gasoline was no anomaly. It was a brief glimpse of our future," said Miller. "We must address the inevitability of peak oil by developing vehicles powered by alternatives to liquid-oil fuel, as well as new concepts... that are lighter in weight and smaller in size. This kind of vehicle, electrified or not, is where our industry must focus its creativity."
The Ford Motor Company's Executive Chairman, William C. Ford, Jr., agrees. In an interview with The New York Times, Ford said, "Frankly, I think it's a gamble not to do it. It's clear that society is headed down this road."
Ford Motors is set to make an announcement regarding EVs at this month's North America International Auto Show in Detroit. General Motors is already building a production line for the Chevrolet Volt, an EV due on auto lots next year, and Chrysler has said it plans to roll out an EV by the end of next year (assuming the company survives that long).
We need electric cars, but who wants them?
It's rare that a company or an industry will offer a product that the public doesn't want, or doesn't know it wants. The sudden push toward EVs is an example of just such a practice. Most people probably don't care whether their car runs on gas or electricity as long as it performs well, with the standards of "well" being set by existing gas cars. However, most EVs (and the known proposed EVs) get between 50 and 60 miles on a charge, a distance that few motorists are likely to find impressive. Moreover, EV batteries usually take a number of hours to recharge; in some cases, the number is a big one. Most of us used to traveling 150 or 200 miles in a day probably won't appreciate a long layover or two on the way.
A good indication that auto consumers might not quite be ready for electric cars is that, after autumn gas prices decreased to levels not seen in years, sales of hybrid cars plummeted 42.8 per cent in December (from December 2007 sales figures) and decreased 10 per cent for the full year 2008.
Going and going
Battery life is a fly in the EV ointment, but in one sense, of course, it's a problem we've been living with for years, on a smaller scale, in a thousand different forms. Batteries die all the time, in notebook computers, cell phones, flashlights and countless other products. Cell phones usually last through the day, and charge overnight while not in use. We can use our notebook computers while the battery charges. We won't be able to do this with cars, though, until the technology advances past a point that anyone's talking about now. The state of the art allows us 50 miles, and for many this will remain a deal breaker.
The entire tech industry must address this problem. For years, chipmakers and notebook manufacturers have tweaked their hardware to use less power in order to squeeze a few extra minutes from the equipment's standard lithium-ion batteries. We all might have been better served if they had put their R&D dollars into developing better batteries.
EVs also use lithium-ion batteries, and while many of these cars are still in the concept phase, warnings have already begun about the depletion of lithium.
The long-term focus must be on EVs with more substantial battery lives, but in the meantime, a stopgap solution suggests itself: developers can set about producing huge numbers of today's batteries, and the government can standardize EV batteries so that all cars use the same type. Roadside stations could then offer battery exchange services, where attendants exchange the batteries in electric cars. The experience would be roughly the equivalent of pulling into a gas station and filling up the tank. Driving as we know it wouldn't change significantly, except that it would become a lot less damaging to the planet.
Innovation we can believe in
The American auto industry is on the brink of something: possibly extinction, possibly rebirth. Switching the entire country over to EVs is an expensive proposition, but doing nothing is not an option. We have cars that run on ethanol, we have hybrid cars, and we'll see fully electric cars before too much more time passes. Innovation is possible. The industry can change, but a battleship is slow to reverse course. Let's hope the rudder was not turned too late.
